Traders,

If this week’s tariff drama felt oddly familiar — like a hand you’ve seen before but couldn’t quite place — you’re not alone. That creeping sense of déjà vu? That’s because this market, right now, feels less like macro policy and more like a high-stakes poker hand.

Trump and Xi are seated across the table, each pushing chips around like world order depends on it — because, let’s face it, it kind of does.

The only question is: who’s actually bluffing?

Let’s deal the hand.

Setting The Table

We’re playing Texas Hold’em. Here’s the flop: 10♣, 8♦, 6♠

That board? Messy. Dangerous. Looks like it could go a lot of ways — just like this market. Possibilities are everywhere. Straights, sets, maybe even a backdoor flush.

Enter our two players.

• Trump’s Hand: A♠ A♦ (Pocket Aces)

• Xi Jinping’s Hand: 9♠ 5♠ (a gutshot straight draw)

Trump came out swinging early April, firing off 145% tariffs on Chinese goods like he was holding the nuts. And for a while, the market flinched. We saw nearly $6 trillion in equity value wiped off the S&P in just a couple weeks. Retail, tech, and bond markets all choked.

He was holding pocket Aces — the strongest starting hand in poker. That’s the tariffs. Bold. Confident. Aggressive.

But here’s the thing: the flop didn’t help him. No Ace, no clear improvement. Just mid-level chaos (10, 8, 6). And now Trump’s in a weird spot — still technically ahead, but with real risk developing on the board.

Xi, on the other hand? He’s got a gutshot draw — a one-card, low-probability chance to hit a straight. That’s 9-5 on this board, praying for a 7. It’s not a hand you want to go to war with… unless the board’s scary enough to bluff.

And that’s exactly what Xi’s doing.

Breaking the Math: What’s the Real Risk?

Let’s talk odds.

• Trump (Aces) vs Xi (Gutshot): Pre-turn, Trump has ~84% equity. Xi? Just ~8% to hit the straight on the turn, with maybe another 8% on the river. That’s a total ~16% chance to win.

But if you’re Trump, looking at that board — you’re not thinking “I’ve got this in the bag.” You’re thinking “Why does this guy keep calling?”

Because from Trump’s perspective, the board is dangerous. Xi’s betting like he hit something. Maybe two pair. Maybe a made straight. Maybe he already has it. And suddenly, those Aces don’t feel so bulletproof.

So what does Trump do?

He hesitates. He stops pushing all-in on tariffs. On April 22, he announces that tariffs will be reduced — not eliminated, but no longer at the aggressive 145% level. “They won’t be zero,” he said, “but they also won’t be as high as 145%.”

Translation: Trump is checking the turn.

Now let’s flip this.

Xi’s holding a losing hand. Period. A gutshot straight draw is statistically weak. But he’s got something else working for him: the board looks scary.

That’s the genius of the bluff. When the cards on the table imply you could be strong, sometimes you don’t need to be. You just need to act like it. Xi’s calling Trump’s bets, raising tension, and waiting to see if Trump folds his pressure.

Xi’s rhetoric? Controlled, measured, but firm. “The door to dialogue is open,” China’s Commerce Ministry said, “but mutual respect is necessary.” That’s code for: “We’re not backing down. But we’re not walking away either.”

And that’s how you bluff with nothing — just enough truth to be believable.

So… Who’s Actually Bluffing?

Let’s bring it home.

It looks like Trump was bluffing — backing off from an aggressive hand, softening his tone, and playing more defensively. But in reality, it’s Xi who’s holding the weak hand. He’s the one floating a gutshot. He’s the one relying on market psychology.

And the crazy part? It’s working.

Trump sees the board — rising inflation, volatile markets, CEO warnings of recession, and political pressure — and he’s checking the bluff. Not because he’s weak, but because even a strong hand can lose if the board runs bad.

Sick read.

The Turn is In — Now We Wait for the River

We’ve seen the pivot. The tone has changed. But this hand isn’t over.

Trump’s not out of it — he’s just not betting as aggressively. Xi hasn’t won — he’s just making the most of a scary board. And the market? The market’s the third player at the table, trying to decide who to believe.

Until the next card comes down — whether that’s earnings, another policy shift, or actual negotiations — we’re in a limbo state.

So what do we do?

We wait. We manage risk. And we don’t chase bluffs with real money.

Because the next card could decide the whole pot.

Inside Info from the High Rollers Table

While most of us have been grinding through this chop, one of our resident quants has been playing a different kind of game — in person.

He took a trip to New York this week to link up with some hedge fund buddies — real-deal portfolio managers and desk heads — the kind of guys who aren’t just watching the game, they move the table when they want to. And let’s just say… he came back with a few gems.

He’s not leaking names or flashing NDAs, but the read is this: the big boys are cautious but not out. They're sniffing around for asymmetric trades and deeply focused on liquidity flow — especially in the face of this policy whiplash. The funds aren’t chasing headlines. They're watching how real positioning is shifting under the surface — and waiting for the perfect moment to pounce.

Sound familiar?

It’s a lot like reading hands at a poker table. You don’t need to see your opponent’s cards. You just need to read the posture. The timing. The bets. The hesitation.

That’s exactly what orderflow is — poker tells on a DOM.

And tomorrow, April 23 at 6pm ET, he’s bringing that insight back to the room. He’ll be hosting a seminar where he breaks down what he’s seeing, what the big money’s quietly betting on, and answering some orderflow questions from another TWT member who's been digging deep into microstructure.

If you’ve been wanting to sharpen your read of the tape — or just peek behind the curtain of how funds actually think through macro risk — this is your seat at the high rollers table.

Bring your notebook. And maybe a few questions.

You’re gonna want to hear this one.

What’s Next: The River Hasn’t Dropped Yet

We’ve seen the turn card — Trump checked his Aces, Xi leaned into his bluff, and the market… shrugged. A little bounce, but no breakout. Just enough movement to keep everyone guessing.

So where does that leave us?

Right back at the table, chips in hand, waiting for the river — that final piece of clarity that tells us whether this détente is real or just a well-played stall.

Until then, we keep it simple. Tactical. Responsive.

Here’s the game plan:

🎯 Pivot: 5381

This is the line in the sand. Above it, bulls have the green light if momentum holds. Below it, things get murky again. The market’s made a habit of fading strength lately, so this is where I’m watching price reaction like a hawk.

📈 Upside Levels to Watch:

• 5416 – First resistance shelf, previous reaction level.

• 5450 – Structural pivot from earlier this month, could act as a decision zone.

• 5490 – Psychological level, and where the last major fade kicked off.

📉 Downside Levels to Watch:

• 5333 – First area of interest if we reject from 5381 again.

• 5243 – Key area of prior consolidation. If we lose this, short-term sentiment likely flips bearish.

• 5174 – The flush line. If we get here, the market’s calling the bluff hard.

We’re not forcing directional bets here. We’re playing position, letting the board develop, and taking what’s offered.

The truth is, the range is still wide, the macro tone still shaky, and every headline feels like a mini-turn card of its own. But that’s the game — and right now, we’re not playing for home runs. We’re playing for survival and selective strikes.

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Can’t Wait?

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Catch you next week,
Jay