Forecast Nailed: Last Week in Review

Traders,

Sometimes markets throw curveballs. Sometimes they hand us exactly what we planned for. Last week was the latter.

If you attended our Sunday prep session, you saw our quant team's distribution forecast clearly outline a bullish scenario—a "right shoulder" move higher, targeting an upper bound around 5675-5743. Take another look at how perfectly this played out:

The price action didn't just follow our distribution—it traced it almost to the tick. We saw the lower bound tested early in the week at 5450, just 20 points shy of the lower end of our expected range. After that, the market powered higher, eventually touching and even slightly surpassing our upside target with an actual high of 5705

Clean, precise, and actionable—exactly what good forecasting is all about.

This Week’s Forecast: Expecting a Balancing Act

Now, what about this week? Our quants have crunched the numbers, and the story they're telling now is different, but just as clear: it’s all about balance.

Check the distribution forecast below. That large peak right in the middle indicates a high probability of range-bound price action. Simply put, the market is telling us it’s comfortable right where it is, at least for the short term. Violent breakouts aren't expected, but neither is a quiet drift. Instead, anticipate volatility within clear boundaries.

Here's what we're looking at:

• Lower boundary: The week's low currently stands at 5596, perfectly aligning with the bottom of our forecast.

• Upper boundary: We're seeing clear overhead resistance around 5700 level, where the distribution starts to taper.

• Expected Close: Our models strongly favor a close near 5705, reinforcing this week's theme of controlled range trading.

In short, the market wants to pause, rotate, and find equilibrium.

Looking Ahead: Don't Miss Sunday

Last week, those who showed up Sunday walked away with clarity, precision, and a week of straightforward trading. If you’re looking for more of that same actionable insight, don’t miss the next prep session. We'll break down every key level, discuss the nuances behind this balanced market, and get you fully prepared to trade with conviction.

Until then, keep your expectations clear, your trades tight, and your eyes on the edges.

See you Sunday.

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Can’t Wait?

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Catch you next week,
Jay