Traders,

Been a bit MIA recently, apologies. While you guys were dodging tape bombs, I've literally been dodging real ones out in the Middle East. (Okay, maybe half-joking.)

Anyway, I know you DGAF how I'm doing; you just wanna know if it’s Mag 7 or MAGA tomorrow. Chill, I got you.

For those who only came for that risk management guide I owe ya, here it is. If you’re here for the Volume Profile alpha, strap in and keep reading.

Trading the News: WTF Do You Actually Do?

Mindset Check

Let's get one thing straight: nobody (except maybe liars on Twitter) nails every move up and down. Yeah, I didn't call every one of these gap downs — shoot me. But if you've been live-trading with me, you know I've been printing cash anyway, mostly to the long side.

Why? Because I'm not some wannabe Nostradamus. I trade risk. Here's my rules for entry:

• I need a clear invalidation criteria (not just a blind “X point stop”).

• I want asymmetric upside.

Shorting lows? Dumb move. Where the hell do you put your stop? I'd rather lean against clear structural areas — even if it means smaller gains. Consistent 10-15 points beat the hell out of occasional 50-point lotto tickets. Longevity is the real flex here, boys and girls.

Example: Check Monday’s trade when futures looked like total garbage:

Tweeted out the core alpha too:

The buying tail of the “b” profile, which signals the first sign of seller exhaustion and a rejection of lower prices, was at 5533.75, literally the lows to the tick. So when we saw initiative behavior off that low on the DOM, plus the confirmation of a bot alert, it was the greenest of lights, and I let everyone know:

Yeah yeah, I know, Monday’s history. What about tomorrow? Glad you asked.

What Volatility Actually Means

Before we get to levels, there’s important context I want you all to really internalize.

The market acting batshit crazy tells us one key thing: nobody knows WTF fair value is right now.

In orderflow land, we imagine the market as a two way auction process. If that is gibberish to you, watch our free intro to auction theory video here.

In other words, the market is seeing liquidity, or an agreement amongst participants as to what fair value is. Some folks use P/E multiples, others use vibes. Whatever the case may be, eventually the auction will find consensus, and that’s when we carve out a nice range.

However in today’s land, the market simply can’t agree on fair value, and that’s why we’ve seen this wacky market out of balance. Tariffs got everyone twisted. Some think Trump’s all bark no bite. Others think he's dead serious. Bottom line: the big players are just as clueless as you are.

But cluelessness = volatility = opportunity. So what's the move?

My Plan

When markets act drunk like this, I rewind the tape to the last drunken binge—which was early August. Look at this structure:

Yes, prices are rollover adjusted. No, I don't wanna debate it.

Veteran newsletter degenerates know what they're looking at: the almighty double distribution profile.

Double distro rules: Price usually probes the area between distributions (5480 this time around) before picking a direction. ETH lows right now? Around 5481. Coincidence? Hell no.

Simple game plan:

• Bulls: Defend 5481, target upper distro around 5567, look for squeeze above.

• Bears: Break below 5481, aim at 5410, then 5381.

This ain’t rocket science, folks. Just good old-fashioned orderflow.

Want More of My Analysis?

Ready to call highs and lows with surgical precision instead of blindly YOLOing trades? Stop half-assing your trading and level up with Premium.

We’re temporarily closed to new premium sign-ups to ensure everyone gets serious attention. Good news: our waitlist is open. Fill out a quick survey. We don’t care about your account size, just that you’re hungry and eager to crush it.

Can’t Wait?

If you’re itching for at least some alpha, hop into our free Discord. You’ll get Adam’s Chartbook, a risk management guide, and occasional real-time insights. Every so often, I’ll even drop a live call if I’m feeling generous—just don’t expect the full sauce for free.

Any questions? Hit reply. Unlike other guys who ghost, I actually answer and enjoy talking shop.

Catch you next week,
Jay