Traders,

Everyone and their dog is suddenly acting like the sky is falling. Meme stocks going down? “Oh, no, the world is ending.” 

Relax, buddy. This volatility is actually a goldmine for anyone who knows how to trade intraday order flow. If you’re freaking out, you either don’t have a plan or you’re married to the stock version of a drunken Tinder date. Don’t be that person.

Anyway, here’s your table of contents, in case you only care about certain parts:

• Why the Market Stopped Rallying

• How Our Plan Did

• My Plan & Levels

And if any of this is confusing—like if the idea of “multi-distribution profiles” makes your brain spin — just reply to this email. I love talking shop with people who actually give a damn about the markets.

Why the Market Stopped Rallying

If you’re trying to pin every market wiggle on a piece of news, you’re basically playing whack-a-mole. Sure, there’s a bunch of headlines floating around—like the Fed possibly hiking more than they cut, or BofA deciding they’ve seen enough “pivot” hype for now. But the biggie? Longer-duration yields are rising because, apparently, the market realized that borrowing money doesn’t come free forever.

Translation for the brand-new folks: Higher rates = stiffer headwinds for equities. If I can lock in a safe 6-7% in bonds, I’m not exactly champing at the bit to hold your overpriced meme stock. So yields spike, equities cool off, and everyone with zero strategy suddenly wonders what happened to the unstoppable bull run.

There are other factors in the mix:

• The US dollar is getting lots of love.

• 2025 corporate earnings might be weaker.

• And surprise, the market doesn’t always go up. (Who knew?)

If you hopped into trading after the 2020 meltdown, you probably assumed the S&P delivering 20%-plus returns every year is “normal.” It’s not. Even the most bullish markets need to breathe, so big money isn’t exactly shelling out the big bucks at the absolute highs. They’re waiting, and so am I.

How Our Plan Did

A market that’s not screaming higher 24/7 is a blessing for intraday traders who know what they’re doing. But that also means more chop—and if you’re not prepared, you get ground to dust. That’s why I keep telling you: Have a plan. If you missed mine, well, that’s on you — though you can read it here.

The 5917-20 “God Level”

I warned you about 5917-20 being pivotal. As soon as we blasted below it on Friday, it turned into a sweet short setup—and guess what? It’s still dishing out trades like a dealer in Vegas. Marked today’s high, too. This is exactly why we talk about key inflection points, because once broken, they flip from support to resistance (or vice versa), and you can rake in a chunk of points without having to pray for daily oversize moves.

And remember my downside target at 5817? Didn’t think it’d hold, huh? Well, aside from a little premarket nonsense, it basically did. The S&P tapped it, and it said, “Nope, not today, you shall not pass.” Sometimes you don’t need a thousand lines on your chart—just the right ones.

Order Flow Bot Bliss

If you’re in my Discord, you know I’ve also been ranting about the 5843 level (more on this later). The order flow bot absolutely killed it there, snagging the low like a pro.

Yes, I’m bragging—because it worked. It’s not cherry-picking if every trade’s a winner except for one early fail.

Still skeptical? Here’s the receipts in the Discord logs.

If you’re not using this bot, you’re basically leaving money on the table. I post all the trades, good and bad, so you can see the method behind the madness. Or you can keep relying on your “bro, I feel it in my bones” strategy. Up to you.

My Plan & Levels

By now, you know I don’t sugarcoat. The plan is largely the same as last week because—surprise—the damn thing worked.

Those of you who are avid newsletter readers already know that one of my favorite techniques to derive longer term levels is to combine multiple market/volume profiles. This helps us see exactly how the two way auction process unfolded. If this is all gibberish to you, start with our intro video here.

Now, this market has created a multi-distribution structure. That fancy term just means we have multiple value areas stacked up. Knowing where those distributions begin and end is how we pick our spots.

If we apply TWT’s double distribution rules, we get the following levels:

• Upside: 5920 is still the big kahuna. Above that, I’m eyeing 5965 → 6007 → 6079 (yeah, the same from last week, because shocker, nothing’s changed).

• Downside: 5843 is a must-hold. Drop below 5810 and we might need the Holy Grail of support if you’re a bull.

Based on everything I’m seeing, I think the market’s put in a near-term low. If it changes, you know I’ll spam an update in the Discord. Don’t worry, I’m not gonna leave you hanging like some Tinder date who ghosted after the first meet-up.

By the way, if you like my chart book and want a copy, it’s available for free in the Discord.

Want More of My Analysis?

Want to stop playing guesswork with your trades? Ready to use actual levels and context instead of “Omg, $SPY is green, let’s YOLO calls!”? Go premium, or keep lurking in the free tier and wonder why you’re not making progress. Our promo expires tomorrow, so if you’re on the fence, here’s your chance!

Can’t Wait?

Join the free Discord. You’ll get Adam’s Chartbook, our risk management guide, and live market insights. Sometimes, I even share bot trades when I’m in the mood.

Alright, that’s enough for one day. Catch you degenerates in the next issue.

Jay